Cheektowaga, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

257
FXUS61 KBUF 081018
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
618 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase this afternoon
as low pressure makes its way across the Ohio Valley. A cold front
will bring more numerous showers and thunderstorms Monday. Drier
weather returns for the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Smoke models keep a degree of near-surface smoke in place through
the day today so expect the hazier skies to continue where breaks in
the clouds are present. Brief ridging and surface high pressure
sliding north of the region will keep dry conditions in place
this morning.

High pressure slides eastward today allowing a surface wave to reach
the Ohio Valley. This surface wave will lift a weakening frontal
boundary northward across the area, with some degree of convection
developing northward into the region through the day today. Greatest
coverage looks to be focused south of the Thruway, with areas to the
north likely remaining mostly dry, especially the North Country.
Afternoon highs today will reach the mid 70s to near 80 for most
locations.

Tonight, a secondary warm front will track north across the area,
continuing the potential for showers. A few embedded thunderstorms
during the evening is also possible.

Rainfall amounts for the entire period should remain below a tenth
or two of an inch for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A mid-level low over the upper Midwest slowly moves east Monday
bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through
Tuesday morning. CAMs and various guidance suggests 0-6km shear of
40-50 knots with a range of MUCAPE values of 800-1500 J/KG around
peak heating. Anticipating some convection to fire in the late
afternoon or early evening as the pre-frontal trough arrives
ahead of the cold front. The main threat will be strong gusty
winds with any of the stronger convection. That said..given that
PW values edge up to 1.5 inches in advance of the front and
flow becomes nearly parallel to the front, repeated heavy
rainfall from storms may lead to localized flooding. WPC has
upgraded much of our area in a `SLIGHT` risk for excessive
rainfall and will add a mention of this potential in the HWO.

The cold front will ever so slowly work from west to east Monday
night, with ongoing showers and thunderstorms bringing widespread
moderate to heavy rainfall to the area. Again...there will be the
potential for flash flooding due to possible excessive rainfall. The
mid-level low then tracks off into Canada on Tuesday, with the cold
front exiting off to our east. While we will begin to see drier
weather for much of the area, a few showers or an isolated
thunderstorm will still be possible but well inland from the
stabilizing influence of the lakes.

The mid-level trough exits off into New England by wednesday, but we
still could see a few showers across the North Country in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A shortwave diving southeast across Ontario Canada Thursday will
drag a cold front into the area with a chance of showers or a
thunderstorm. The front is then advertised to stall near the NY/PA
line by Friday, where additional showers and storms will be
possible. Uncertainty then increases as we head into the weekend but
all indications are the stall front will bring continued unsettle
weather to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of haze from wildfire smoke will persist today where breaks
in the clouds remain, though VFR flight conditions will persist
throughout the day for most areas. Some showers with a few embedded
thunderstorms will track into the western Southern Tier during the
early afternoon and then expand northeast through the afternoon and
evening.  Brief reductions to MVFR can`t be ruled out within showers
and embedded thunderstorms. Showers aren`t expected to become very
organized as the frontal boundary responsible for them remains
fairly weak.

Tonight, increasing moisture along with lingering showers will lower
CIGs to MVFR for areas south of Lake Ontario, with higher terrain
areas of the western Southern Tier dropping to IFR at times
overnight.

Outlook...

Monday and Monday night...widespread MVFR lowering to IFR, possibly
LIFR with heavy rain. Thunderstorms also possible.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow will bring modest chop on the western end of Lake
Ontario by this afternoon. Winds will then turn southwesterly Monday
and Tuesday, though at this point conditions appear to remain well
below advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ001>008-
     010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...SW/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SW/TMA
MARINE...AR